SEC Pushes Back Decisions on XRP and Altcoin ETFs, Approval Odds High

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the timeline for when they will decide on several spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for cryptocurrencies, including XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano and Litecoin.

It’s common for the SEC to delay initial decisions on ETF applications.

Affected asset managers include Grayscale Investments, VanEck, CoinShares, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, according to a wave of filings posted on the SEC’s website on Tuesday.

In addition to altcoin ETF applications, the securities regulator deferred on a filing from Nasdaq Stock Market to offer in-kind creations and redemptions for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

Loads of ETFs

The SEC also delayed decisions on in-kind creations and redemptions for the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF, Fidelity Ether, as well as 21Shares’s proposal to incorporate staking in its Ether ETF.

Although the postponement may disappoint investors, it is not entirely unexpected. The SEC’s review process for new financial products like, especially ETFs tied to new asset classes like cryptocurrencies, is often complex and involves multiple stages.

It’s common for the regulator to delay initial decisions to gather more information, address concerns, or seek public comment. The SEC has a history of delaying decisions on cryptocurrency-related investment products, like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart, the latest delays are “standard procedure” and they will note considerably change his overall odds of approval for the ETFs. He noted that the final deadlines for decisions are not until October.

Eth staking and in-kind also delayed. Everything delayed. It's like the NYC-bound Amtrak on monday morning: "Mechanical issues in DC"

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 11, 2025

Paul Atkins, President’s Trump pick as the new SEC Chair, has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. The final decision of these ETFs will likely come after Atkins’s confirmation, though there is no set date for his Senate confirmation hearing.

Eric Balchunas, Seyffart’s fellow Bloomberg ETF expert, commented that past delays in Bitcoin and Ether ETFs didn’t prevent their eventual approval. He added that delays were to be expected due to government processes.

Also on Tuesday, Franklin Templeton submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC for the Franklin XRP ETF. The official statement came after the company registered an XRP trust entity in Delaware on February 28 this year.

Asset managers have filed the most applications for XRP and Solana ETFs. However, major Bitcoin ETF players like BlackRock, VanEck, Invesco, and Valkyrie have not entered the XRP ETF market. Excluding VanEck, these firms have also stayed out of the Solana ETF race.

BlackRock evaluates potential ETFs based on client demand and a clear investment thesis. However, compared to Bitcoin and Ether, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Robert Mitchnick sees low demand for other cryptocurrencies.

“I would say that our client base today, their interest overwhelmingly is in Bitcoin first, and then somewhat in ETH… and there’s very little interest today beyond those two,” Mitchnick said at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville.

High Odds

Bloomberg ETF analysts believe it’s the matter of time for the crypto ETFs to get greenlight from the SEC. Currently, Litecoin (LTC) is viewed as a strong contender, with approval odds estimated around 90%.

The high probability is largely due to Litecoin’s similarities to Bitcoin and Ethereum, coupled with its established presence in the cryptocurrency market. Most importantly, the CFTC previously called it a commodity.

Dogecoin (DOGE), despite its origins as a memecoin, also gets relatively favorable odds, estimated at 75%. This is due to its major market presence and the strong community support it enjoys.

Apparently, a clear regulatory status is now a key advantage, one that XRP and Solana have not yet secured. These crypto assets remain classified as “securities” in the SEC’s ongoing litigation against Binance and Ripple Labs.

Solana’s (SOL) approval odds range between 70% and 85%. The positive outlook is supported by Solana’s robust ecosystem and growing institutional interest, with prediction markets demonstrating strong confidence in its ETF approval prospects.

XRP’s approval odds are somewhat more nuanced, falling within the 65% to 80% range. Despite these legal complexities, there is optimism regarding its potential approval, driven by increasing institutional interest and anticipated settlement between the two entities.