Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Testing $81K as Trump Tariff Plans Raise Market Concerns

TLDR

• Bitcoin fell to a two-week low of $81,300, trading around $82,000 as of March 31, 2025
• Market fears over Trump’s planned tariffs against up to 25 countries are impacting risk assets
• On-chain data shows 4,000 BTC ($332 million) transferred to Kraken exchange, signaling potential selling
• Goldman Sachs raised US recession probability from 20% to 35% for the next 12 months
• Overall crypto market lost $250 billion in value over the past week with altcoins experiencing steeper declines

Bitcoin’s price continues to face downward pressure, falling below $82,000 on Monday as fears of new trade tariffs under President Trump’s administration weigh on markets.

The cryptocurrency briefly touched $81,300 in early trading, marking a near two-week low. This continues a pattern of decline that has erased much of the gains seen earlier this year.

Investors are reacting to reports that President Trump is preparing to announce reciprocal trade tariffs targeting up to 25 countries. The Wall Street Journal reported these tariffs could reach 20% against individual nations.

Trump’s tariff plans are set to be unveiled on April 2. The announcement is expected to cover key market sectors and has created uncertainty in global markets.

This trade policy news has overshadowed positive sentiment from Trump’s earlier plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve. Markets tend to view such tariffs as potential destabilizers for global trade.

Recent losses have wiped out nearly 40% of Bitcoin’s value since its record highs around Trump’s January inauguration. This shows the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to broader economic concerns.

Adding to market worries, Goldman Sachs recently increased its forecast for a US recession. The investment bank now sees a 35% chance of economic downturn in the next 12 months, up from its previous 20% estimate.

The bank cited several factors for this revised outlook. These include uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, persistent inflation, and declining consumer and business sentiment.

On-chain data has also spooked Bitcoin traders. About 4,000 Bitcoins worth approximately $332 million were transferred to the Kraken exchange, often a sign of upcoming sales.

The broader cryptocurrency market has suffered similar declines. The total crypto market cap has fallen by $250 billion in the past week, dropping to $2.75 trillion according to CoinGecko data.

Bitcoin Price on CoinGecko

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 1.5% to $1,809.93. It has lost 19.2% in March and reached a 16-month low.

XRP dropped 3.5% to $2.10, erasing gains made after the SEC dropped its case against Ripple. Other major cryptocurrencies like Cardano fell 3.4% while Solana remained flat.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysts note concerning patterns forming in the charts. Bitcoin, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, appears to be approaching a “death cross” pattern that could signal further bearish momentum.

This technical formation occurs when short-term moving averages cross below longer-term averages. Some analysts wonder if this could mark a market bottom before any potential recovery.

Bitcoin’s price action continues to show strong correlation with traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 lost approximately $2 trillion in market value over three trading sessions last week.

Some market commentators, including economist Peter Schiff, have criticized Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative during this downturn. Gold has reached new record highs above $3,090 while Bitcoin falls.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted another concerning trend. According to Martinez, the global money supply has dropped by nearly $1 trillion over the past two weeks.

One of the current bullish narratives is that #Bitcoin $BTC will rally as global liquidity grows.

But what they aren't telling you is that the Global Money Supply dropped nearly $1 trillion in the past two weeks! https://t.co/FVwzeiKzQW pic.twitter.com/whEwEuG65K

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 30, 2025

Martinez also reported significant selling by Bitcoin miners. Over the past week, miners have sold more than 2,400 BTC, worth approximately $220 million.

Recent US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data showed persistent inflation, raising concerns that monetary policy will remain tight. This outlook creates additional headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.

As markets enter April, traders will be watching Trump’s tariff announcement closely. The policy details could either extend the current bearish trend or provide relief if less severe than expected.